It’s Time to Ignore the Stud Running Back Theory 

By: Grady A. Ray

          For years, most Fantasy Football Owners have lived by the Theory of the Stud Running Back. That theory states that your best chance at fantasy success is to grab two starting running backs with your first two picks in the draft and fill in the rest of your team from there. In past seasons that strategy made a lot of sense. Many teams were in flux as to who their starting running back was going to be and other teams abandoned the concept of a featured back all together, preferring to go with a committee approach. True featured backs were harder to come by than a Mormon in an AA meeting.

          In this first Fantasy season of the new millennium, a shift can be seen from a weak running back pool to a strong and relatively deep pool. There are, in my estimation, no fewer than twelve and possibly fifteen or sixteen running backs who can put up stats that would make them viable #1 starters for your fantasy squad. Beyond that, the group that makes up #1 and #2 caliber starters extends to at least twenty-five players.

          The Players that I see with #1 potential are:

Edgerrin James

Marshall Faulk

Jamal Lewis

Stephen Davis

Eddie George

Fred Taylor

Emmitt Smith

Corey Dillon

Ahman Green

Curtis Martin

Terrell Davis

Duce Staley

Ricky Williams

Jamal Anderson

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

            The players I see as potential #2 backs are:

Warrick Dunn

Jerome Bettis

James Stewart

Ricky Watters

Tiki Barber

Lamar Smith

Michael Bennet/Doug Chapman*

Tyrone Wheatley

Michael Pittman/Thomas Jones*

Tim Biakabatuka

 

* = Potential Running Back by Committee systems that could flourish if a #1 back is settled on.

 

          While the Running Back position seems to be teeming with talent, the Wide Receiver position looks as weak as any season that I can remember. The thinking behind Wide Receivers used to be that you could ignore them early because there were plenty available (counting on a minimum of 2 starting receivers per NFL team) and the top 10 or 20 all tended to put up relatively similar stats. In 2001, that is not the case. Outside of possibly five receivers, I don’t see a single stud #1 receiver in the bunch. There are plenty of players who could make the jump to Stud status, but all of them have as many questions as answers circling around them. New Quarterbacks, new offensive schemes, new coaches and new teammates can all directly or indirectly affect a receiver’s output. Aside from my top-5 receivers, I don’t see another receiver that is worth more than a late 3rd round pick, if that high.

 

          The Stud Receivers are:

Randy Moss

Marvin Harrison

Terrell Owens

Isaac Bruce

Torry Holt

 

            Are there other receivers who could be added to this list? Sure there are, but none of them have proven themselves beyond a shadow of a doubt. Joe Horn? He doesn’t know who his starting QB is, he’s got a new #2 receiver in Albert Connell, a healthy Cam Cleeland and a potentially devastating backfield combo in Ricky Williams and Duece McCallister. Maybe you’re thinking Derrick Alexander. Derrick Alexander has a new QB, new offense, new running back, a 2nd year starter who showed flashes and a 3rd round pick who has been impressive in mini-camp. Jimmy Smith is coming off intestinal surgery that almost forced his retirement. Eric Moulds has lost the quality depth at QB that made him a weekly threat. Antonio Freeman is a fat bag of crap. Tim Brown has Jerry Rice and an aging QB with little experience as backup.

          So what does all this mean or you? Simply watch your draft board a little closer, especially if you’re picking in the middle to lower portion of Round 1. You will probably have a chance to grab a top-5 receiver at that time and the advantage of having that #1 Stud receiver like Moss, Harrison or Owens may be the difference between a championship and another “could’ve been” season.