Defense DOES win Championships: A look at how team defenses can impact a Fantasy team by Grady A. Ray

            Most fantasy football players look at defenses as a necessary evil; something to be tolerated but not paid much attention. They figure dropping any NFL unit into their starting lineup is good enough; the outcome will be decided by the “real positions”. Well I’m here to tell you that that is absolutely not the case. A strong defensive team can make a drastic difference in your total points and final standing.

            The vast majority of owners will simply use the final NFL defensive standings from the previous year when picking their defenses. This is akin to using the final position player standings from the previous season as a cheat sheet; it’s simply not done if you want to have a legitimate shot at a championship. For example, the #1 ranked defensive unit, according to the NFL, was the Buffalo Bills. However, in a standard performance scoring method for defenses, which I’ll explain in a minute, Buffalo finished in a tie for 29^th. Hardly what you’d expect for a #1 defense, is it? In contrast, 50% of the top 12 fantasy defenses were ranked in the bottom half of the NFL rankings; and none of those 6 teams were above 17^th overall.

In the following graphic, I’ll show the discrepancy between the NFL defensive rankings and fantasy defensive rankings. Below, I’ve documented the scoring system that was used as the basis for the scores established:

Scoring for Defense: 1 pt for every int. and fumble recovery. 6 pts for any TD from the defense or special teams. 2 pts. for every sack.

Top Defenses as ranked by the NFL, with fantasy points per the scoring system above :

1.     Buffalo - 96

2.     Baltimore - 157

3.     Tampa Bay - 128

4.     Jacksonville - 174

5.     Miami - 112

6.     St. Louis - 210

7.     Denver - 138

8.     New England - 127

9.     Dallas - 133

10.  Oakland - 127

11.  Pittsburgh - 118

12.  San Diego - 121

Now, the fantasy defensive rankings based on the scoring system provided, with NFL rank in parenthesis:

1.     St. Louis – 210  (6)

2.     Jacksonville – 174  (4)

3.     Kansas City – 167  (14)

4.     Tennessee – 160  (17)

5.     Baltimore – 157  (2)

6.     Philadelphia – 156  (24)

7.     Minnesota – 150  (27)

8.     Washington – 145  (30)

9.     Detroit – 144  (18)

10.  Denver – 138  (7)

11.  Dallas – 133  (9)

12.  Seattle – 130  (23)

Quite a bit of difference, ain’t it? While there are teams that rank consistently well on both charts, the majority of the fantasy “stud” defenses come from outside the top 12 of the NFL rankings. Also consider this: if you had the Rams defense last year, in this scoring system and played a 16 game schedule, assuming you made it to the Super Bowl; you would’ve averaged 13 points per week from a position that no one else in your league cared about. I’d be pretty happy averaging 13 points a week from ANY position, let alone my defense.

The next question is: How do I target a defensive unit as a fantasy “stud”? For me, there are several criteria that you can use to identify a breakout candidate.

1.     Youth: If you look at the defenses in the Top 12 of the fantasy rankings, you’ll see teams that have a lot of youth. Young players tend to be more active in defensive schemes, and are out to prove themselves as top players in the league.

2.     Speed: Speed kills. It’s a football axiom that has been around for years, but has never been truer than in today’s game. Most if not all of the squads on this list are stocked to the rafters with fast players.

3.     Experience: If you have young players who have had the opportunity to start from the beginning, you’re defense will produce. Look at Baltimore as an example. With players like McCrary, Boulware, Rayenthal Lewis and Jamie Sharper; they have a great group of young players with starting experience.

4.     Defensive Scheme: In the list of top fantasy defenses, there is not a single team that runs a 3-4 defense. To me, that automatically eliminates Carolina, the Jets, Pittsburgh and Buffalo from my draft day plans.

5.     Rookies: When a team adds a rookie defender in the first round, he’ll normally be a starter, and he’ll have a pretty good chance of being an impact player. Last year, Jacksonville added Fernando Bryant, Tennessee added Jevon Kearse, Baltimore added Duane Stukes, Washington got Champ Bailey, Denver found Al Wilson and Dallas picked up Ebeneezer Ekuban. All of these teams were top 12 producers. Some teams to watch this year would be Philly, Chicago, Indy and San Francisco.

Since all leagues have differences in scoring, you’ll probably have to adjust the rankings slightly. For example, if you only get points for defensive touchdowns, your top 5 would be St. Louis, K.C., Philly, Jacksonville and Dallas. If you get more points for interceptions than anything, Seattle, St. Louis, Philly, Green Bay and K.C. would be your best bets. Hopefully though, this article has allowed you to see the value that a good scoring defense can add to your team; and will allow you to gain an advantage on your league in your upcoming draft.

Good luck to all in 2000, unless you’re in a league with me, and let your defense carry the day!