Most seasoned FF owners wait until the last few rounds to draft their defenses for two reasons:

1-    The difference between the top defenses and the middle of the pack defenses is usually not very much.  Sure, every few years you have a defense or two that comes out and blows the others away, but for the most part, this is true.

2-    While some teams are usually solid picks, the top defenses usually fluctuate from year to year, making it difficult to predict the best defenses.  Last year’s can’t miss defense is nowhere near a lock to repeat.  (Seattle blew everyone away in ’98, but was only mediocre the following year.)

Drafting defenses, however, is not a shot in the dark.  In fact, by paying particular attention to a few things, you will be able to wait while the prior year’s top D’s get taken early, and end up with a better pick when it is all said and done.

Free Agency

This is probably the most obvious sign for defenses.  With the league’s FA system set up the way it is, teams are able to stock up on new players at a much greater pace, thus changing the fantasy outlook of a defense overnight.

What you need to remember is that while one team is gaining a player, another team is losing one.  Look into who is replacing the departed FA.  It could be that the defensive unit won’t skip a beat with the new guy, but more often than not, when a superstar bolts for greener pastures, he leaves behind a gaping hole.  How well a team can fill that hole – whether via a backup, a FA acquisition, or the draft – will determine if a team will fall from glory or not.  So be sure to notice who goes where and who replaces whom.

The Draft

You need not look past Jevon Kearse at Tennessee to see how one draft pick can change the fantasy outlook for a defense.  “The Freak” was almost unstoppable in ’99.  Who will be this year’s rookie defensive stud?  Will there even be one?  We’ll take a look at that in another article, but here are two things to look for:

1-    Speed.  In the NFL, these days, speed kills.  When a defensive lineman is able to chase down a RB, he’s bound to make an impact.  Players coming out of college are faster than ever.  Consider this, if a lineman or linebacker can run as fast as a RB or WR, speed rushing past a lineman to sack the QB won’t be too big of a problem.

2-    What is the defense like that the player is joining?  Kearse is a monster.  No argument here.  But put him in Cincinatti, and he wouldn’t have had quite the same impact.  He would have been good, but not “freakish”.

The Schedule

Consider strongly the schedule that a team plays that year.  A schedule full of creampuff offenses is a fantasy defense dream!  Much of a team’s schedule consists of division games.  For that reason, the division a team plays in will play a major role in how much a fantasy defense produces.  In 1999, Cleveland was new, Pittsburgh was on the decline, and Cincinnati was, well, Cincinnati.  It made perfect sense to get my hands on defenses in the AFC Central, because it meant they had 6 games against weak teams.

Complimentary Defenses

Some people suggest that you take one defense in the draft, and pull from the scrap heap to cover your BYE week.  Should you do that, be sure to select a BYE week replacement that has an easy game that week.  I prefer to look for defenses that compliment each other.   Look at the defenses you like and divide their schedule into EASY, NEUTRAL, or DIFFICULT based on the opponent’s offenses.  Charting this for every team, you want to find two teams that allow you to maximize the number of weeks you can play a team with an EASY or NEUTRAL opponent.  The more games against weak opponents your defenses have, the better off you are.

Coaches and Systems

If you don’t religiously follow the coaching carousel, you need to start doing it!  It has everything to do with fantasy defensive projections.  Pay particular attention to the defensive coordinator.  This applies, of course, to all teams, but a coaching change can be a fantasy gold mine.  How is that, you say?  The style of defense a new coordinator brings to a team can turn a pathetic defense into your ultimate sleeper.

In 1999, my sleeper was Philadelphia.  While I am a proud Eagles fan, this was in no way a homer pick.  Often you see people drafting their local team for sentimental reasons, but this wasn’t the case.  I had good reason to believe they would turn the ship around, and, best of all, in most drafts, I was able to wait until the last round to get them!

Why Philly?  After reading about the Eagles’ new Def.Coor., Jim Johnson, I knew I would have a late round golden nugget.  Before coming to the Eagles, Johnson was the LB coach in Seattle (that same Seattle team that led the league in takeaways and defensive scoring), and he vowed to bring in the same attacking style of defensive play to Philly.  It’s called a load defense, variable defensives packaged into one, and it gives offenses fits!  Offensive fits = turnovers and defensive touchdowns = fantasy points!  Before Seattle, Johnson was with the Colts, where his teams were ranked among the league’s best.

See why it’s so important to stay on top of the coaching carousel?

Obviously, the best defenses are going to be the ones that have made the best player acquisitions, have the easiest schedule, and play an aggressive style of defense.  Jacksonville in 1999 was a classic example – they grabbed Bryce Paup from Buffalo in 98, play in the AFC Central, and hired blitz-guru Dom Capers to lead their defense.

Now you know what to look for, it’s time to do your homework and find next year’s defensive wonders. 

Happy hunting!