You may be a pretty good Fantasy Football Owner, but you could be a lot better…

While not exactly a "How to Win Friends and Influence People" conversation opener, I believe that statement is painfully true for the great majority of Fantasy Football owners. Please understand, possessing an encyclopedic knowledge of all things NFL, does not necessarily make you a good Owner. While they certainly help, knowledge and information are only part of the formula for a successful Fantasy Season. Crucial parts yes, but you must have more. Listen close now…It’s what you do with that knowledge and information that makes the difference.

If you want to learn how to dominate your league, and more specifically, your draft; Read on. In this article, I’m going to lay out the principles of my Value Based Drafting System that I’ve been espousing since 1996. This is not fluffy, light reading for the casual fan. This is serious and valuable information for the hardcore owner who’s playing for keeps and willing to trade his girlfriend for an edge. This article is for Fantasy Sharks. If that’s you, c’mon in.

My friends (and FanEx league competitors) at the KFFL, have put together one outstanding website here chock full of insights and analysis. But, Fantasy Football Success is not all about information. It’s my goal to help you formulate a strategy which allows you to take the valuable information we at KFFL provides and turn it into a Fantasy Championship.

Before we begin, lets get this out of the way right now. Luck. I know a good many fantasy owners who never devote the time and effort to learn about the game simply because they feel luck is too much a factor. I’ll never argue that luck isn’t involved. The very shape of the football should tell you that. However, for every 10 "baitfish" owners who whine about bad luck, there’s a Shark who sees things differently. Sharks agree with Scientist Louis Pasteur, who said "Chance favors the prepared mind."

While the baitfish owners are moaning about the lack of production from the rookie WR, the Shark passes on the novice Receivers knowing that only a handful of first year players have broken the 1000 yard barrier over the last few decades. The Baitfish owners cry about their fragile QB who’s injured again. The Shark realizes few QBs take every snap throughout the season and drafts a quality backup. See the pattern? A great many things the average owner blames on luck, both good and bad, the Shark sees, anticipates, and plans for. To paraphrase Pasteur, Sharks believe in making their own luck.

Virtually every league (yours included) has at least a couple of owners who consistently do well. They consistently outdraft their opponents, they consistently make smart trades (often surplus from a strong draft) and they consistently outmanage their fellow owners. Like all winning teams, they put themselves in a position to win. No, they don’t get every break, but they get their share. This game can be maddening with the large number of factors that you have absolutely no control over. The Shark has mastered the trick of controlling the things you can. That’s worth repeating: Control the Things You Can.

Case in point: Many owners tore their hair and cursed the Fantasy Football Heavens when Elway went down for a few games. I hate to tell you, but unless you were only allowed one QB on your entire roster, that wasn’t bad luck. Injuries happen. You can count on it. You’d better count on it. Bad luck is when Elway throws a 5 yard TD pass to Rod Smith and it’s nullified because some 71 year old part time NFL employee ref thought Nalen was holding. Next play, he hands the ball off to Davis and TD rumbles in. THAT is bad luck for John Elway owners. If you spent a pick on Elway and didn’t snag Bubby in the last round like the Sharks in many leagues did, well that’s the difference between you and them. For now.

Fortunately, like most skills, these things can be learned. It’s not magic. It’s work. But it can be done. In fact, if you’ve been successful in your Fantasy Football endeavors (and if you’re with me this far, I’m betting you are) you probably already rely on such advanced techniques as Player Valuation, Position Scarcity, Performance Forecasting , Inter Position Relationships, Draft Economics, Trading Principles, Draft Dynamics and Roster Management. You may just need to "tune" them up a bit.

The Shark knows it all begins with Draft Day. Actually, it begins the day after last Year’s Pro Bowl and culminates in Draft Day. I am convinced without a doubt that your success during the draft is irrevocably intertwined with your success for the season. In my opinion, the importance of your draft simply can’t be overestimated. Yes, I’ve seen teams rebound from a poor draft with outstanding management skills and a hefty dose of good fortune. It is possible. It’s also possible to win the Daytona 500 by starting in the back row. You ask Jeff Gordon where he’d rather start and I betcha my Terrell Davis to your Charlie Garner that he’ll go for the pole. You’re miles ahead of the game if you can emerge with a strong team and then let your trading and management skills push you even further ahead.

Imagine yourself in the following scenario:

Draft night. Round 6. Tick tock, tick tock. The walls in the smoke filled room are slowly closing in on you. You’re well aware that you have entered the crucial phase of the draft where the men are quickly separated from the boys. The adrenaline rush of the first two rounds is a distant memory while you run on nothing more than caffeine and raw nerves, your stomach constantly questioning the wisdom of accepting that last slab of pizza. Your situation is considerably worsened when the owner selecting in front of you steals the budding star you covet but passed on last round because you were certain he’d hang for another 12 picks. All the guys in the Usenet Group said you just had to have the #2 RB in round 5 and Mr. Sleeper star would stick around for at least another round. You just knew it. Tick tock…

Yeats was right when he said, "we have no enemy but time". With your "steal of the draft" sleeper now sitting smugly on your rival’s roster, you have to make a decision…fast. And like the guy in "The Holy Grail", you’ll be much happier long term if you choose well. Suddenly you’re sifting through QBs in the Trent Dilfer (TB)/Elvis Grbac (KC)/Rich Gannon (OAK) range, RBs in the Chris Warren (DAL)/James Stewart (JAX)/Charles Way (NYG) neighborhood, WRs in the Chris Calloway (ATL)/Mushin Muhammad (CAR)/Ike Hilliard (NYG) mold, and TEs along the lines of Frank Wychek (TEN) or Tony Gonzalez (KC). Do you even dare think about a Kicker yet? Surely not a Defense. Sheesh. Whaddya do?

If you’re like 95% of the Fantasy Owners out there, you do what you’ve always done: Consult your old friend, the "Gut", and grab whoever he tells you. Ah, good ‘ol Gut. Live and die with the Gut. Unlike your rival, who claimed he’d never heard of your star sleeper 2 hours ago, the Gut never lies and he’s never let you down before. Has he? OK, you weren’t the only guy in the world to snag Kordell Stewart (PIT) in round one last year so you can’t blame that all on the Gut. But there were those couple (dozen) instances last season where the "hunch" didn’t quite play out as you planned…and you’re pretty darn sure the Packers failed to cover the Super Bowl spread in 97…and now that you think of it, Mr. Gut had a pretty sizable hand in helping you pull the trigger on that last piece of Deep Dish Supreme a few minutes ago. What’s up with that?

Maybe there IS a better way.

To quote Slingblade’s all knowing, Carl, "Yesssir, I b’lieve there is."

Hopefully by now I’ve impressed upon you the draft’s importance. Let’s look at the two problems we as drafters face:

#1. We don’t know for sure what stats the players will post in the coming season.

And

#2. We don’t know how to attach a value to those stats even if we did know what they were going to be.

Stat projection is the topic of our next article so I won’t go into detail here. Beside, Ryan told me to keep it under 20,000 words… However, I will offer the Condensed Version of Bryant’s Player Projection System.

Think Big Picture. When I project stats, I look at the Player’s Past Stats, Age, Size, Speed, Track Record, Position, Injury History, Attitude Reputation, Surrounding Teammates, Coach’s Philosophy, Stadium, City, and any other special situations that might be impacting the player this season. For rookies, I’ll also add into the mix factors such as Type of College Offense, Level of Competition, Experience as a College Starter, and especially what Position they play. After digesting all that, I ask myself one important question:

"What is different this year that will make me believe the player will perform either better or worse than last year?" That’s it. A very simple, but very loaded question.

I believe in something I call the Law of Continuation that governs human nature. Essentially, it states, "Most people keep going along pretty much like they have been until they encounter something strong enough to make them change." I like Troy Aikman, but I’d feel pretty darn comfortable in saying he’s due for another 12-15 TD "Aikman-like" season. Even with Raghib Ismail and another year under Gailey, Troy’s in essentially the same situation he usually is and I see no reason why he won’t do what he usually does. Players like Philadelphia’s RB Duce Staley and Seattle’s WR Sean Dawkins, are a different story. They are players who will be thrust this year into dramatically different (and better) situations than they were last season. Their talent isn’t any better. It’s the situation in which they’ll be utilizing their talent that has improved. Should a player like a Minnesota’s WR Matthew Hatchette be given the opportunity, I think he’d perform in a similar fashion. On the flip side, if you think players like Larry Phillips have turned the corner, more power to you. I’ll pass, thank you. I like to see my players on the field in uniform as opposed to in court doing the "Huggy Bear" impersonation. To paraphrase, "Most folks just keep doin’ what they’re doin’ until something changes."

See, I told you it was simple. Look at the past, see what’s changed this year, and give it your best shot. Will you be right every time? Of course not, but as you’ll see in a moment, projecting these numbers for each player is the foundation of this value system.

Now let’s look at problem #2: How do we assign a value to these stats even if we knew what they were going to be? Try this one on for size. (Stay with me here, this is good) A magic Genie nudges you on the couch and offers you one wish. Putting all hope for domestic tranquility aside, you proudly state you’d like to know what every player was going to do this year down to the exact yards gained, passes caught, and TDs scored. Problem though. The two-timing Genie visits every guy in your league and they all ask for the same wish. (Tough league)

So you have 12 guys walking into your draft. Each one of you knows EXACTLY what every player will produce for the coming season. For the sake of argument, let’s say no trades or roster substitutions are allowed all season long. Out of the blue, ESPN2 calls and says they’d like to broadcast the draft live, Mel Kiper and Chris Berman appear with headsets ready, and just for grins, Coca-Cola decides to put up 1 million bucks for the winner. Hey, it’s my story, I’ll make it like I want it.

The question is: Who would win your draft? Who would win the million if everybody in your league knew exactly what each player was going to post? Someone would win, that I can promise you. Would it be you? Could it be you? Why? Why not? Let’s say you’ve been presented with the above question/opportunity but have a couple of weeks to think about it. For a million bucks, I believe most people would think about it…hard. I must be cheap because I think about it fairly hard for considerably less than that.

Pay attention over the next few pages and I’ll have you ready for the Kiper interview and wondering where to blow a million bucks (those Bryant Boats sure are nice…) There is a method that can take a great deal of the guesswork out of determining a player’s value. Before I get started, let me give credit where credit is due. Like many Owners, I cut my fantasy teeth on the Rotisserie Baseball work of Bill James, John Benson, Peter Golenbock, and the insightful writing of Pete Palmer. They helped me "turn the light" on years ago in developing a foundation that I’ve built upon with my own work. I’m appreciative of their contributions, as are a great many Fantasy Owners. Now let’s get to it.

Projecting Stats

The hardest part is the first part. In order for the Value System to work, it requires a firm set of projected stats for every player in your draft pool. Don’t give me grumbling about how unpredictable football players are or the whining that usually follows player projection discussion. If you’re going to dominate this draft (that IS your goal, isn’t it?), it’s absolutely essential that you have all the pertinent stats for your league projected for every player for the entire season. In my FanEx league, it’s Rushing TDs, Receiving TDs, Passing TDs, Interceptions, Fumbles, Passing Yardage, Rushing Yardage, Receiving Yardage, Field Goals (by distance), Missed Field Goals (by distance), Extra Points, and Missed Extra Points. I project these numbers for every player that I expect to be drafted, not just starters.

Is this too much work? If it is, maybe you’re not Shark material. Save yourself the effort, stop right here and return to the "baitfish ranks". Grab yourself a "cheat sheet" off the newsstand and have a good time. You may do well. More than likely however, you’ll pad the wallets of the Sharks in your league.

It’s not really that much work though. If you’ll think about it, you’re probably doing these projections already, just not this specifically and probably not formally. Everyone thinks that Davis will score more TDs than Dunn. We all think Favre will throw more TDs than Manning (although it’ll be closer than you think). Everyone expects Morten Andersen to boot some 50+ yarders. Those things we know. What you must do with your projections is get a handle on exactly how many more TDs you expect Davis to post than Dunn. It’s not enough to say "he’s better". You must decide how much better. This becomes critical later because in a real draft, you’re not comparing Dunn to Davis only. You’re comparing Warrick Dunn to Brad Johnson, Jerry Rice and Shannon Sharpe perhaps. To see how Dunn compares to them, you must understand exactly how he compares to Davis. You’ll see why in a moment.

As I said earlier, projecting is a tough business. Don’t worry, you’ll miss a lot. That’s part of it. What’s important is that you do it and not just throw in the towel. Projections are the foundation of what you’re doing here. Stick with it and you’ll get better. I keep old projections and try to learn each year where I went wrong. Should you have spotted Preist Holmes last year? Doug Flutie? There were two "surprises". I quote the word surprises because to the astute observer, they shouldn’t have been that shocking. The Raven RB situation was far from settled early last season and anyone who put too much faith in Mr. Rhett got what was coming to them. Nope, I didn’t think Lil’ Flutie still had it in him either (although it was sure fun to watch) but Johnson was not exactly a proven commodity. What I’m saying is don’t just watch what’s going on, look deeper.

Where to get the info? You’re visiting one of the best sources available. At KFFL, we are committed to providing you with top notch timely information and news. For detailed analysis, I’m of course partial to our TFL Report http://www.tflreport.com where Bob Harris and I bring you the latest insights and analysis. Most importantly, find a source you trust and feel comfortable with. Balance their opinion against your own feelings after taking in the factors I mentioned earlier and then let it rip. That is, after all, the point of owning your own team. If you wanted to coach a team and have someone else make every decision, you might as well watch the Cowboys.

One final note on projecting stats. I got a few questions last year from smart owners who asked about what I call the "Reality Check". Their question was, "Don’t all the stats have to "add up"?" In other words, if I project Young for 25 TDs, must I project his WRs / TE / and RBs to catch exactly 25 TDs among them total? My answer is unabashedly "No".

The premise behind the "gotta add up" camp is very easy to understand. It is attractive on the surface and lots of smart people I know fall right in line without ever thinking about it. You say to yourself, "Hey, that's right, if Young is gonna throw 25 TDs, then all the TD receptions for every WR / TE / RB on the 49'ers just can’t add up to more than 25. Garbage in Garbage out as they say." Garbage in Garbage out is exactly right. If you make a garbage call on Young's TD projection, then you're automatically causing a garbage domino effect projection for every WR / TE / RB reception projection in San Francisco. Ask yourself, are you really that confident in your prognosticating abilities that you can determine exactly how many TDs Young will throw?

If someone can nail it down close enough to base 5 other guy's TDs totals off of their QB projection for one player, they have an incredibly lucrative future ahead of them in Las Vegas. Me personally, I'm not that willing to hang 5 guy's projected TDs upon the projections I have for a guy who's one sack away from a law career. (or any other QB) It's just not that exact.

I'm MUCH more comfortable letting the players stand on their own. Sure, there are limits and you have to use common sense, but something in the range of 25 TDs for Young and a cumulative 28 TDs spread between the other players is well within my comfort level. This projection business is messy stuff. I find it very difficult to build a house of projected stats upon a foundation no more concrete than my projected numbers for a handful of players. I look for anything I can do to make those projected numbers as individually accurate as possible.

With that said, get busy and start projecting. Trust me, just do it. I personally like to go through and click them off rapid fire and then come back later for indepth study and analysis. Pull out your trusty STATS, Inc Handbook, take a look at the past stats and ask yourself the "what’s different?" question we talked about for every player. While you’re at, focus on 2^nd half of the season stats. They can often tell a lot.

Projecting Fantasy Points

OK, stats are projected, now what? Now you must run these raw stats through your scoring system and come up with a projected number of fantasy points you expect each player to produce from the raw stats you projected. Rank each player BY POSITION from highest to lowest number of projected fantasy points. For right now, keep them separated by position.

What you now have is a ranking by position of how well you expect the players in your league to perform given the unique scoring system your league uses. A quick note on league individuality—With the huge variety of scoring systems, starting roster requirements, and league sizes, be incredibly hesitant about heeding anyone’s specific advice until you think it totally through. As you’ll see later, these factors can have tremendous influence on a player’s value. Anyone who tells you that you must draft RBs early (or any other position) without specific knowledge of your league just simply doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

Looking at your rankings, you’ll have a listing very similar to what you’ll see in the "cheat sheets" that are so common. Except your rankings will actually mean something since they have been adjusted to your league’s scoring system. Because the player’s projected point total is right there, it’s easy to see the "tiers" and dropoffs among the players. This isn’t hard. As I said before, it’s not tough to make the Terrell Davis or Warrick Dunn decision. Unfortunately for the cheat sheet Warriors though, most leagues don’t hold a RB draft, followed by the WR draft and then the QB draft. They have this funny habit of throwing all the players into a pool and drafting them at once. Hold on there a minute! How do I know if Mark Brunell and his 130 points should be drafted in front of Barry Sanders and his 95 points? How does Rice’s 100 points compare to Sharpe’s 75? And what on earth am I going to do with Jason Elam’s 150 points? There, my friend, is the rub. It’s very easy to rank all the QBs or WRs, but most folks will throw up their hands when asked to tell you exactly how the number 10 RB compares in value to the number 5 WR. Unfortunately (for them) that’s exactly the bit of information you’d better have a firm grip on when the clock starts ticking.

Determining Baseline

The next step is determining your "Baseline". After Projecting Stats, determining your baseline is the next most crucial aspect of the system. What you’re looking for in the baseline is a player (or number) that you’ll compare all the players at that position against. The simplest way to set a baseline is to use the worst starter at each position. In other words, for a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 PK, the worst starters will be the 12^th best QB, the 24^th RB, the 36^th WR, the 12^th TE and the 12^th PK.

Pay attention here. When determining a value for players, you must look to see how far the player outdistances himself from other players at that position. Make sure to understand, this is not the same thing as fantasy points scored.

Think about it for a moment. The goal is not to score a ton of points. You can score a ton of points and still lose. The goal is to outscore your competition. In other words, the goal is to distance yourself ahead of the competition. How do you best do that? You do that by selecting players who outscore their peers, not necessarily the players who score a ton of points. This is extremely important. Copy this and paste it somewhere prominent. It’s the key to success in this game.

For example, if you select a Morten Andersen, at say, 145 points, your competition can counter that move with a Steve Christie at 143. You’re up 2 points, big deal. Your opponent takes a Bledsoe at 115 points. You can effectively counter with a Testeverde at 100 only giving up 15 points. You select a Ben Coates at 75 points and if your opponent counters that with Kyle Brady at 35, you’re suddenly up a whopping 40 points. The team that wins will be the team that can most distance themselves from the pack at each position. It makes no difference from which position the advantage in points come from. All you’re looking for are the points themselves. You can gain the advantage from being just a little better at each position, or you may gain the exact same advantage by being incredibly strong at one position and just a little weaker at all the others.

People sometimes have a hard time seeing this. (Assuming a mandatory TE) They’ll say "how can a TE (Sharpe) scoring 75 points be more valuable than a #1 WR ( Terrell Owens) scoring 95 points?" The answer is that it’s not a game of TE vs. #1 WR. Just like the real thing, it’s a team game. The Sharpe owner gets to draft a #1 WR to team with Sharpe and the Owens owner must draft a TE to team with Terrell. The Sharpe owner will be able to draft a #1 WR fairly close to Owens’ numbers. The Owens owner’s TE will likely post numbers much lower than Sharpe’s. When the owner combines the numbers of Sharpe and his #1 WR, they will probably be more than the numbers posted by Owens and the available TE. Does this make sense? If it doesn’t, read it again. It is the cornerstone of the Value Principle.

Think about it like this. We are NOT trying to assemble a group of the highest scoring players with no regard to position. If that were the case, the best team would be full of kickers. We are bound by our starting lineups as to the positions we must fill. Our team, consisting of a specified number of players from the specified positions will compete against the other teams consisting of the same number of players from the same positions. Therefore, the object of the game changes from assembling a group of high scoring players (with no regard to position) to assembling a starting roster with the highest scoring players at each position. Think of it in terms of individual matchups pitting your team against another team, position by position. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say your starting roster is 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR and 1 PK. In a one game matchup, your QB outscores his QB 20 to 18 (+2 points). You’re up 2. Your RB is outscored by his RB 0 to 5 (-5 points). Now you’re down by 3. Your WR outscores his WR 20 to 5 (+15 points). Now you’re back up by 12. Your kicker outscores his kicker 21 to 20 (+1 points) This puts you up 13. You win the matchup 61 to 48.

It’s an absolute no brainer. The WR who scores 20 points MUST be the #1 draft pick. The 20 point WR is by far the most valuable player even though he scored the same as the QB and 1 point less than the kicker. He gives you a 15 point advantage at WR while the better QB only gives a 2 point advantage, the better PK gives a 1 point advantage and the better RB gives a 5 point advantage. The WRs 20 points were much more valuable than the QBs 20 points and the PKs 21 points because of how the player relates to his peers. It’s like tic-tac-toe. If it doesn’t make sense, actually do the draft and see it yourself.

Because you must fill each position, the owner who drafts the 20 point WR cannot lose. The draft is over once the WR is taken. You give me the 20 point WR and my dog, Zeus, can draft the rest of my team and still beat you. Re read this and make sure you understand it. It’s vital that you see all points do not have equal VALUE.

There’s nothing tricky with the small sample size. The principle works the same whether it’s a four player, two team league or a normal league like you play in. Expanding the number of players does nothing to dilute the principle and logic behind it.

When you think about it, this is something you’re probably already doing at some level already. For example, it’s generally accepted that owners wait until the later rounds to draft a kicker. Why? It’s certainly not because they don’t score enough points. They usually lead the league in most scoring systems. The reason that most kickers are drafted late is that they have low value. They have low value because there are many kickers who will produce a similar number of high points. Even though they’re high scorers, most owners feel that they can wait until later and still pick a nice kicker.

Anyone stay awake in Economics 101? Hey, I had a tough time too, but believe it or not, this very concept is the same thing that put most of us to sleep back then. It’s simple Supply and Demand. The Supply is represented by the players available. The Demand is represented by the Owners desire to draft those players. The law of Supply and Demand says that the price (value) of an item will rise as demand rises and as supply goes down. Likewise, the price drops as Supply rises and Demand falls. The combination of both the supply and the demand are what ultimately determines the price. Diamonds are more valuable than opals because A) diamonds are more rare than opals and B) more people like diamonds than they do opals. If you found a diamond on the street every time you looked down, or if Diamonds fell out of favor with the female population, the geniuses in the marketing department would be dropping the "3 month’s Salary is the proper amount to pay" drivel faster than Barry Sanders can make Brian Cox look silly.

Same thing with Fantasy Football Players. In the above example, kickers earn a low value because there are just so many good ones available. They’re a "dime a dozen" as they say. On the other hand, a Terrell Davis has few peers. RBs who can post his type of numbers are considerably more "rare". Therefore, his value goes up. Make sense? Elementary, I know, but it’s important to understand the concept behind the principle.

It’s important because of the different situations you’ll see with different leagues. Everyone likes to talk about unique scoring systems. Yes, scoring systems can make a large difference in the player’s values from league to league. But, other factors can have even more impact. Think about the implications of juggling the required starting roster size. Let’s look at 2 leagues. We’ll call them "Big League" and "Small League". Big League is 14 owners and they have a starting roster that mandates they start 3 WRs. Small League has 8 owners and their starting lineups have 2 WRs. Remember Supply and Demand. In Big League, you’re going to have demand for 42 WRs every Sunday in the starting lineup. Small League has a demand for only 16 WRs. In which league do you think Joey Galloway has a higher value?

Sometimes an absurd example helps. Let’s say you join a league that has 35 teams in it and QBs are awarded incredibly high points. Crazy, I know, but bear with me. If you had to start 1 QB in this league, how valuable would Favre be? Several teams would be getting zip from their QB every Sunday in a league like this. The demand for Favre would be off the charts. Now think about how it applies to your league and your starting roster requirements.

I helped a friend last year in building his draft list. His league was relatively small (10 teams) and they had a 2 WR starting requirement. I had already finished my FanEx draft list where we start 3 WRs (12 teams). Running the exact same projected stats for the players through both leagues, I consistently found that WRs in my FanEx rated a good 10-12 draft slots higher than they did in my friend’s league. Again, it wasn’t that these WRs were going to score any less points, it’s just the effect of changing starting lineup requirements and league size.

Think about that the next time someone tells you in a magazine that you absolutely "must draft position X early if you expect to succeed". They have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about unless they understand your league size and your starting lineup requirements. It depends on your situation. I think that the draft format being the standard way of obtaining players has something to do with our level of thinking. An auction style of draft really makes you think more. It’s one thing to say Favre is more worthy of a high draft pick than Bettis. It’s an entirely new issue when you start allocating a certain number of dollars from your salary cap towards particular players. If for no other reason than it will make you think, I’d suggest every drafter spend a little time playing around with the auction concept. Even if you draft players, the thought processes involved will be beneficial.

I’m always amazed at the smart fantasy owners I meet who just honestly don’t have a good grasp of the supply and demand thing. They’ll argue all day long in defense of not drafting a kicker early, which tells me they understand the concept. Then they’ll turn around and start talking about the necessity of snagging a prime QB in the first 2 rounds when in reality, they’re nearly as plentiful as kickers in many leagues. The principle doesn’t care whether you’re talking about QBs or PKs. It’s a constant and that’s why it’s called a principle. It’s a simple truth largely ignored by a great many smart people. Use it to your advantage.

Back to the issue of determining a baseline, here’s how I do it. The goal here is to assign a numerical value to each player so that we can build an overall draft list. Go back to your position rankings where you list each player at each position ranked by how many Fantasy Points you expect them to post. Using your starting lineup requirements we talked about, determine the starters for your league. In other words, if you’re in a 12 team league that starts 1 QB each week, your QBs 1-12 are starters. Now you must determine a baseline to use so we can measure each player at that position against a standard baseline. We want to see how they compare to their peers at that position.

For right now, lets use the baseline of measuring all players against the worst starter at that position. Again, let’s use my FanEx league as an example. With 12 teams starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 K, that would mean we’d measure each RB against the #24 RB to get the worst starter there. Each QB would be measured against the #12 QB, each WR against the #36 WR and each TE is measured against the #12 TE while the PKs are measured against the #12 PK.

Value Numbers

If the #12 QB on list is my baseline and he is expected to post 75 points, I would subtract 75 points from each QB down my list. That would give the worst starter (#12) a value of zero. All QBs who are not expected to start would have a negative value. This number will be called your "Value Number" or V#. Do this for every position so that the worst starter at each position has a value of zero. Lets say you expect Favre to post 200 points. Subtracting the points scored by the worst starter would give Favre an V# of 125.

What you’ll then have is an V # for every player that shows how many points you expect them to score more than the worst starter at that position. This is the number that determines value. You’ll most likely find that your kickers all have V #’s fairly low and fairly close together. This reinforces what you already know. Even though they score a ton, they’re all just about the same and you can afford to wait and snag a good one later. You’ll probably be surprised when you look at the other players too. QBs are probably deeper than you think. After Brett Favre / Steve Young, there is a drop, but the group of Randall Cunningham, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning etc. is awfully strong. In yardage leagues, you’ll probably be surprised at the depth of RBs. Players like Adrian Murrell quietly pile up the yardage without much fanfare. TEs will probably shock you. When you start to see the benefit that a Ben Coates / Shannon Sharpe can give you over a Ken Dilger (IND)/Pete Mitchell (NYG), you may be surprised. WRs are probably not as deep as you may think, especially in yardage leagues, and therefore the value of the top players are increased.

Think back to our 4 man league example of before. What you’re looking for are players who have the most advantage over the other players at that position.

As you begin to play around with the system, you’ll immediately see that the number you choose to use for a baseline has dramatic effects. Because that number will effect each player’s V #, it’s the center pole of your system. There are many schools of thought here. Probably the most common is using the worst starter as I’ve done in the examples above. Although many use the average of all the starters as a baseline and still others use all the players they expect to be drafted, not just starters when determining your baseline. This is important and well worth the time for your own experimentation. For right now, just get comfortable with measuring players against a baseline at their position and assigning value based on how much they differentiate themselves from the group.

Another vital factor is to remember how things like the number of teams, required starting lineups and available players drastically affect the baseline and therefore the player’s X # and value. Remember the example of Joey Galloway in "Big League" and "Small League". The more average WRs you throw into the pool, the more valuable Joey becomes. It’s basic Supply and Demand but many owners fail to see it. That’s why I firmly believe that generic overall rankings and draft cheat sheets are largely useless for most owners. In the example above, Galloway’s value could have fallen from a late first / early second round pick to a mid 4^th rounder solely depending on the situation and league.

Still not convinced after the 8 player draft example? The simplest way I know to prove this to yourself is to do the million dollar question draft I mentioned earlier: Grab a few buddies and do a mock draft filling out your starting lineups and rosters --- With Last Year’s players and Last Year’s stats. Knowing what each player will score for the year, build your team. Think about it for a while and you’ll start to see the concept of value and how the different positions relate. Draft a team and start adding up the points. You’ll find that the players who distance themselves the most are indeed the most valuable. A TE who can score 50 more points than the average TE, suddenly becomes a better selection than a WR who can score 25 more points than the average WR, even when that average WR will outscore the top TE head to head. Again, it's not a game of TE vs. WR. It’s a Team game where the total points determine the winner. Some owner will be forced to start that average TE and you’ll be further ahead when he does.

Think it through and you too will begin to see the concept that points don’t necessarily equal value. Spend some time with this system. Project your stats and total points and then play with the numbers. Try using different baselines and see how the value changes as the number of starters change. A spreadsheet lets you make changes in a few keystrokes and can be a great help.

In a nutshell folks, that’s it. I could talk for days about each aspect of the VBD and plan on doing just that in upcoming articles you’ll find here at the KFFL site. Look for something new the 15^th and 30^th of each month right up till regular season kickoff. I’ve thrown out a lot of information, some of it may be new and unfamiliar. To quickly summarize the system:

Principle wise, if you only remember two things, remember this:

1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can’t lose after drafting the 20 point WR.

2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. Don’t put any faith whatsoever into a generic "cheat sheet" ranking of players unless you’re positive that the specifics of your particular league have been factored in.

Last of all, remember my Cardinal rules:

#1. Have fun.

#2. It’s a whole lot more fun when you win.

Get to work and make your own good luck this season! See you next time where I’ll dig into the "Black Magic of Stat Forecasting".

Note: The basic principles in this article were first published on the TFL Report website in May of 1996.

Joe Bryant is Sam, Allie and Jake’s Dad, the owner of Bryant Analytics, and in his spare time serves as President / Owner of Bryant Boats, Inc. (www.bryantboats.com). He and partner Bob Harris produce the TFL Report (www.tflreport.com). He’s Co-Founder of the FanEx Football League (www.fanexfootball.com), a fracas among top experts from the industry now in it’s 4th season. Besides trouncing Ryan and Del this year, he’s set the goal of drafting players with names he can pronounce. Joe’s email address is jbryant@bryantboats.com and you can meet him at the Fantasy Football Weekly Convention August 28-29 where he’ll be appearing.

Copyright Bryant Analytics, Inc. 1999